Some Thoughts About NY 23

I don’t think the big problem is that the Republican Party and associated stalwarts are now supporting the “too liberal” candidate, Dede Scozzafava, in the New York 23rd Congressional District's special election. Rather it is how did the New York Republican Party make such a controversial choice? My main concern here is in fixing the Party rather then defeating an aberrant candidate. If Dede Scozzafava wins, it matters little except that if we can win all three (VA, NJ governors and NY 23) then it will pressure the Blue Dogs to oppose the public option in the health care bill. If we win only one of the three or worse none of them, it’s going to be full speed ahead for Obama’s socialist policies. Conservatives by going with a third party are almost guaranteeing a Democrat win. Don’t forget that the most important vote any legislator casts is the one to organize the body!

On the other hand many leading conservatives seem to be saying, “Let’s defeat the Republican Party to send a message.” There can be a case for this in special situations. For example, I’m very happy to be rid of Arlen Specter. By not have a strong conservative as the lead Republican on the Judiciary Committee, we were continually at a disadvantage on the all important judicial confirmation process. So there are times when taking a tactical loss can be a strategic win. I don’t think the NY 23 race is a good example of this.

My real fear going forward is that Conservatives and Moderates will be at cross purposes in the upcoming elections leaving Obama and Pelosi in power. RINOs, moderates, and even Bill Clinton are/were better than the Obama/Pelosi Team and all of the czars. I do support the general idea of fighting the moderate leadership in the Republican Party but we must avoid third parties at all costs. Remember what Perot did to the Republicans in 1992 or even feeble Ralph Nader did to the Democrats in 2000? Third parties almost always lose. They almost always elect the candidate of the two major parties that is most unlike them, i.e. conservative third parties elect liberal Democrats!

At the same time, I want to warn the leadership of the Republican Party that their treatment of Sarah Palin has been reprehensible. More over it is dangerous. The one person that I could see who could reelect President Obama is a truly rogue Sarah Palin. A conservative-oriented third party movement would pull enough votes from the Republican candidate to allow Obama to have a minority win, e.g. Clinton’s. But, third party movements always need a charismatic personality to lead them. Palin is the only possibility that I see at the moment that could do this. This is why all Republican establishment types had best be very nice to Sarah. The fact that they haven’t been scares me.