The Obama administration is losing credibility as the whole U.S. Middle East policy crashes around their heads. To add insult to injury is their wavering explanations for what happened in Egypt and Libya which they are now blaming totally on an obscure internet video produced by a Coptic Christian who is living in the U.S. This flies in the face of obvious facts that the attack in Libya was planned and carried out by a well armed assault force. It also is in conflict with the statements of the president of Libya and that of national security specialists. It is clear that while none of the regional governments were behind the attacks, it is also clear that they did less that they could prevent the attacks.
One need only recall how in 2008 the McCain campaign received a fatal blow with the economic crisis that started with the Lehman collapse. From the outset of that campaign such an event occurring before the election would constitute an “unknown unknown” in the risk analysis terminology which was popularized by Donald Rumsfeld. The current meltdown in U.S. Middle East policy and the growing Obama administration credibility gap may constitute a similar game changer in this year’s campaign. Obama’s claim to a foreign policy advantage has collapsed in an instant.
Of course another complication is the “known unknown” of the pending confrontation between Israel and Iran. This could provide yet another “sea change” with massive consequences that are unpredictable.